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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    OH REALLY!!! Similar to the claims that lifting a ban offshore drilling for supplies that won't exist for at least a decade is impacting prices today?

    Priceless.
    Those are the liberal talking points used by Pelosi and her merry band of henchmen. I assure you that given the opportunity the oil from off-shore drilling and ANWR would reach the market far faster than these feet dragging idiots predict. These aren't government workers that are putting these rigs in place, they are private corporations looking to make a profit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    Those are the liberal talking points used by Pelosi and her merry band of henchmen. I assure you that given the opportunity the oil from off-shore drilling and ANWR would reach the market far faster than these feet dragging idiots predict. These aren't government workers that are putting these rigs in place, they are private corporations looking to make a profit.
    I cited a report by the DOE. You cited your opinion. Unless you have something that will show us your expertise in oil exploration and extraction it is nothing more than conjecture.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    I love an argument based on hypotheticals.

    If the moratorium was lifted today, the DoE estimates that production would begin around 2017 and that full-scale extraction wouldn't occur until 2030, at which time the additional 200,000 bbl/day, would be an increase of approximately 7%.

    Money quote from the DoE:
    Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.
    Sure, but it's all theoretical. Until we can explore, we won't know.

    Some experts say there could be as many as 18 billion barrels in these prohibited areas.

    As for the time range, even if it is 10 years (and that is also debatable) more the reason to start now.

    Noone is saying it will help current prices, but we need to think long term as well.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    Thank you for that. However, in The Glenshaw Glass case (1955), the Supreme Court laid out what has become the modern understanding of what constitutes 'gross income' to which the Sixteenth Amendment applies, declaring that income taxes could be levied on "accessions to wealth, clearly realized, and over which the taxpayers have complete dominion." Under this definition, just about any increase in wealth is considered taxable.
    Touche!

    However, that does not address the wrongs cited in the original quote. It merely defines income (which was never really in question), not why it is not consitutional to tax it...good cite though. Look though the citation, it never mentions that is overthrows the last ruling by the SC...I know, clear as mud. Again...food for thought.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    I cited a report by the DOE. You cited your opinion. Unless you have something that will show us your expertise in oil exploration and extraction it is nothing more than conjecture.
    Lets analyze your source's forecasting a little more. While I won't question the facts presented by the DOE, their estimates leave much to be desired. Even their own short term estimates are sketchy. In August of 2007, the DOE, in it's Short-Term Energy Outlook predicted that oil prices would average $71.25 per barrel in 2008. I'd say they missed the mark, and that's just 12 months ago. How in the world are we to assume their long term forecasts are any better? This casts doubt on any statement or assumption based on the DOE's estimates and forecasts.

    I don't disagree with your assertion that increased offshore drilling may take a decade to get going. The construction and transport of an oil platform is no small task. Bush's lifting of his father's directive is largely symbolic as an anti-drilling law dating back to 1981 is still in place. But this still shows our country's increased motivation to utilize domestic oil resources.

    Oil prices are a result of thousands of transactions taking place simultaneously around the world, at all levels of the distribution chain from crude oil producer to individual consumer. Oil markets are essentially a global auction -- the highest bidder will win the supply. Oil prices can be unjustly inflated if a bidder war ensues during the auction.

    One failure of your argument is that you've excluded the influence of speculators in the oil futures market. The left leaning CBS News reports they have doubled their market share of West Texas Crude since 2000. And they have unjustly influenced the market price, and even King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had denounced their practices of bidding up the prices of oil.

    Oil futures, or futures contracts, are an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a specific date in the future at a specific price. If the price goes up, the buyer of the futures contract makes money, because he gets the product at the lower, agreed-upon price and can now sell it at the higher, market price. This had been a driving force behind the bidding wars taking place in the Oil futures market. Even the academically gifted Ben Stein writes that something fishy is going on, bordering on a conspiracy. This is no different than the bidding wars that take place over stocks that are traded above their mathematical value, despite showing a financial loss and not paying a dividend. Traders still buy it in the hope it will sell for a higher price.

    Some more facts present by the DOE are:
    Because the United States is the world's largest importer it is easy to forget that it:
    -is the oldest major global oil producer;
    -is formerly the Number 1 global oil producer (1972);
    -is currently the Number 3 global oil producer;
    -has produced more oil, cumulatively, than the current reserves of any country but Saudi Arabia.
    And supporting the fact that the US is the worlds 3rd largest producer of oil: Link 1 & Link 2 & Link 3.

    This establishes the fact that we're still a major player in the oil production market, and taking measures, even symbolic ones, to increase our production, puts the fear of God into those people who have staked their future profits on inflated oil prices brought on by previous scarcity of a commodity.

    Clearly, the threat of allowing more drilling in America threatens the profit margins of oil speculators, causing a down turn in oil prices.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave1983 View Post
    Not trying to start a fight...but I'm curious as to what you base that on?
    It's called satire. I expected some of the morons on here not to get it, but most people who have been on here awhile got it. I'm surprised you didn't.
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    Quote Originally Posted by score View Post
    OH REALLY!!! Similar to the claims that lifting a ban offshore drilling for supplies that won't exist for at least a decade is impacting prices today?

    Priceless.
    Actually it will. Don't you know that prices are set from speculation not from actual production??????

    p.s. After reading further down, I see that txgp17 explains it much better than I did. So..........what he said
    Last edited by THEFIRENUT; 08-18-2008 at 05:15 AM. Reason: Addition
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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    OH REALLY!!! Similar to the claims that lifting a ban offshore drilling for supplies that won't exist for at least a decade is impacting prices today?

    Priceless.
    More evidence that you do not understand the commodities market.
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    Scarecrow; I don't know how much experience you have in the oil industry but if the US opened up the wildlife refuge right now for exploration and development, it would be well over a decade before that oil ever reached the first gas tank. I work for some of the worlds biggest oil companies including American and its simple logistics. Seismic licensing, implementation, gathering and interpretation, minimum 3 years. Actual issuing of exploration licenses, sourcing of drilling rigs and then actual drilling of exploartion wells, 5 to 7 years. Completion of sucessful wells, gathering systems, whether onshore or offshore, transportation, pipelines, FPSO's, tankers, probably another 6 to 8 years. Factor in environmental impact studies, native land claims, extreme weather conditions, worldwide shortage of experienced personnel as well as equipent suitable for working in the environment and you are probably looking at 2 decades for this oil to reach the market. Keep in mind, nobody can be positive that there are economically viable reserves there to develop. One thing I can guarantee is that the US taxpayer will be asked for massive subsidies to kick start and probably continue paying for any development. Best we start considering viable energy alternatives




    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    Those are the liberal talking points used by Pelosi and her merry band of henchmen. I assure you that given the opportunity the oil from off-shore drilling and ANWR would reach the market far faster than these feet dragging idiots predict. These aren't government workers that are putting these rigs in place, they are private corporations looking to make a profit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    I cited a report by the DOE. You cited your opinion. Unless you have something that will show us your expertise in oil exploration and extraction it is nothing more than conjecture.
    I'm sorry, I didn't see your reference. Could you please post it again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiefKN View Post
    Sure, but it's all theoretical. Until we can explore, we won't know.

    Some experts say there could be as many as 18 billion barrels in these prohibited areas.

    As for the time range, even if it is 10 years (and that is also debatable) more the reason to start now.

    Noone is saying it will help current prices, but we need to think long term as well.
    As a side note, the DOE and USGS have been found to be way off on their estimates in the past. They estimate 10 billion barrels, and the oil companies find 30 billion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BryanLoader View Post
    Scarecrow; I don't know how much experience you have in the oil industry but if the US opened up the wildlife refuge right now for exploration and development, it would be well over a decade before that oil ever reached the first gas tank. I work for some of the worlds biggest oil companies including American and its simple logistics. Seismic licensing, implementation, gathering and interpretation, minimum 3 years. Actual issuing of exploration licenses, sourcing of drilling rigs and then actual drilling of exploartion wells, 5 to 7 years. Completion of sucessful wells, gathering systems, whether onshore or offshore, transportation, pipelines, FPSO's, tankers, probably another 6 to 8 years. Factor in environmental impact studies, native land claims, extreme weather conditions, worldwide shortage of experienced personnel as well as equipent suitable for working in the environment and you are probably looking at 2 decades for this oil to reach the market. Keep in mind, nobody can be positive that there are economically viable reserves there to develop. One thing I can guarantee is that the US taxpayer will be asked for massive subsidies to kick start and probably continue paying for any development. Best we start considering viable energy alternatives
    Perhaps. But if we were serious about it we could expedite that process. All the red tape could be cut. As for ANWR, my understanding is that this would use the already existing Alaska pipeline, thus getting me more nag for the buck.

    As for the subsidies, I would like to see all subsidies gone. We subsidized this failed effort into the ethanol market and now we are stuck with it. The problem, however, is that other countries subsidize their energy costs. Since our businesses must compete on a global scale is it fair to have them pay full price for their energy while the competition gets a reduced rate? Either way it is a difficult question, one which is not easily answered.

    I do know this much. We made a bad decision years ago not to drill for the oil. The longer we delay reversing that decision the longer we will suffer.

    As a side note, Watching Glenn Beck the other day. He was commenting on the falling price of oil. The reason the price is dropping is we are using less, the reason we are using less is the economy is falling. Something to think about.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    OH REALLY!!! Similar to the claims that lifting a ban offshore drilling for supplies that won't exist for at least a decade is impacting prices today?

    Priceless.
    That is the entire point. You have been told this before, you access it now to AID the process. We were arguing this same point 10 years ago in this country and the Libs were saying the same thing about it. If we had accessed it, it might have an affect now.

    You drill off our shores, then we keep the oil in our nation, not sell it on the market. It can be done, you just have to have the political wherewithall to do it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    As a side note, the DOE and USGS have been found to be way off on their estimates in the past. They estimate 10 billion barrels, and the oil companies find 30 billion.
    You expect accuracy from a government agency? Surely you jest.
    "Too many people spend money they haven't earned, to buy things they don't want, to impress people they don't like." Will Rogers

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    Quote Originally Posted by txgp17 View Post
    Clearly, the threat of allowing more drilling in America threatens the profit margins of oil speculators, causing a down turn in oil prices.
    I looked through your links and could find nothing that states the current decrease in oil pricing is being caused by lifting of the drilling ban.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgeWendtCFI View Post
    More evidence that you do not understand the commodities market.
    Really?? I would like to read or find a commodities broker who is buying futures for oil that hasn't even been discovered yet. Your fealty to this point is only proving YOU have no understanding of how the commodities work.

    Be reasonable. I think everybody here knows and understands the concept of supply and demand.

    However, supply and demand has value only when the supply component is readily available or imminently available. The price of gas doesn't come down today because fuel cell technology may be here in another decade. The price of electricity isn't moderated because Moore's Law dictates that solar panels will be cheap, many times more efficient and readily available for all homeowners by 2020. In order for supply to drive down price, there first needs to be supply. In the context of the OCS, it was specifically argued that the discussion of opening the OCS was responsible for the reduction in global oil prices.

    This isn't a difficult concept: The prospect of a potential supply of oil which wouldn't be on the market for 10-20 years will not drive down the current price of oil. That price is driven instead by the availability of oil today--will war in Angola interrupt production, will a hurricane shut down rigs in the Gulf, will Israel bomb Iran and cause the latter to go offline?--and not by what could happen two decades from now. Even if those leases were signed this morning, the oil market wouldn't see that oil for many years, and until it contributes to the global supply, it doesn't exist.

    Are you still confused on this subject? I surely hope not.
    Last edited by scfire86; 08-18-2008 at 12:12 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    As a side note, the DOE and USGS have been found to be way off on their estimates in the past. They estimate 10 billion barrels, and the oil companies find 30 billion.
    When has this happened?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    As a side note, Watching Glenn Beck the other day. He was commenting on the falling price of oil. The reason the price is dropping is we are using less, the reason we are using less is the economy is falling. Something to think about.
    Glenn Beck gets it. Oil that hasn't been discovered yet is NOT the reason for falling prices.

    As I've stated before. Capitalism is a great engine of progress, but it can kill the goose that lays the golden egg. We're seeing that with oil producing entities.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgeWendtCFI View Post
    It's called satire. I expected some of the morons on here not to get it, but most people who have been on here awhile got it. I'm surprised you didn't.
    Thats what I figured. But I couldnt pass on a chance to learn a bit more about the mystery that is GeorgeWendtCFI, so I had to ask...just in case.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    Really?? I would like to read or find a commodities broker who is buying futures for oil that hasn't even been discovered yet.
    I will say this, and I am by no means an expert, and if anyone on here is then why are you wasting your time here!

    The supply and demand forces at work are completely screwed up by the out of control speculation of the oil market.

    SO, to say that the threat of opening of offshore oil to exploration would have no impact on today's oil prices is not neccesarily true. It could impact it, just like any other ripple through any speculative market.

    Not to mention that if the ban is lifted, there is some oil off the coast of california (10 billion barrels by some estimates) that is in shallow water and could be produced in a year. Wall Street Journal article reposted here (WSJ requires subscription) http://news.tennesseeanytime.org/energy/node/610

    This is what speculators do, they discount the future.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    Those are the liberal talking points used by Pelosi and her merry band of henchmen. I assure you that given the opportunity the oil from off-shore drilling and ANWR would reach the market far faster than these feet dragging idiots predict. These aren't government workers that are putting these rigs in place, they are private corporations looking to make a profit.

    And because they are paying people wages to build new rigs,refurbish older rigs and install them off the coasts,local economies will benefit from the drilling as well.
    That may be why the Democrats are so against drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.Most with coastlines on the Gulf have Republican Governors.It would look bad if a Republican Governor was in office when a state's economy improved,wouldn't it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by doughesson View Post
    That may be why the Democrats are so against drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.Most with coastlines on the Gulf have Republican Governors.It would look bad if a Republican Governor was in office when a state's economy improved,wouldn't it?
    Is that the reason Jeb Bush was opposed to drilling off the coast of Florida? He didn't want to look good to spite the dems.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiefKN View Post
    This is what speculators do, they discount the future.
    Fair enough. If you or George can find one oil commodities broker that is recommending a buy position based upon supplies that are ten years away from being realized (or may not exist at all) I'll change my mind on this issue.

    The cause and effect to a decades away oil supply is akin to me saying that I've never been rained on since I started carrying an umbrella in my car.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ECCMac View Post
    Touche!

    However, that does not address the wrongs cited in the original quote. It merely defines income (which was never really in question), not why it is not consitutional to tax it...good cite though. Look though the citation, it never mentions that is overthrows the last ruling by the SC...I know, clear as mud. Again...food for thought.
    All well and good I guess. The end result is the feds consider wages taxable income and levy taxes accordingly under the authority of the 16th Ammendment and Constitutional provisions I cited earlier.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    Fair enough. If you or George can find one oil commodities broker that is recommending a buy position based upon supplies that are ten years away from being realized (or may not exist at all) I'll change my mind on this issue.

    The cause and effect to a decades away oil supply is akin to me saying that I've never been rained on since I started carrying an umbrella in my car.
    Perhaps you missed the part of my post that discussed bringing some california oil to market within a year.

    You are applying rational theory to a process (speculation) that relies on "irrational" actions or guesswork based on hunches and guesses. If these prices or supplies were a sure thing then it wouldn't be called "speculation".

    I'm not going to start calling brokers to satisfy a debate on an internet forum. So, you can keep your opinion.

    Let me further state that I do NOT believe the announcement is the sole reason for the drop in prices. But I really do believe that speculation is the driving force behind these prices.
    Last edited by ChiefKN; 08-18-2008 at 04:58 PM.
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