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    Default Mutual aid revamp necessary in 2010

    This will sure make things interesting when requesting assets for a disaster.

    DECEMBER 29, 2008 As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
    In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

    MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

    In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

    Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

    But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

    A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

    "There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

    Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

    In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

    Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

    Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

    Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

    The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

    In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

    "When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

    At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

    He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

    California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

    "It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

    Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

    Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

    The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

    For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

    The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.
    PROUD, HONORED AND HUMBLED RECIPIENT OF THE PURPLE HYDRANT AWARD - 10/2007.

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    Sad part, he may not be far from wrong. The Chinese already own us.

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    I wouldn't be too concerned about Russia right now. The ruble is devalued 50%, the Russian stock market has lost 75% of its value in the last 6 months. Things are not a hell of a lot better than they were in 95. Oil kept em afloat, now its tanked, so has the whole country.

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    Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic."

    Only if New York or Texas agree to take Quebec. We'll throw in the Toronto Maple Leafs free

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    I didn't know that smoking dope was now legal in the Rodina!

    Up until the breakup of the old CCCP, they were basically a military superpower with a third world economy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgeWendtCFI View Post
    DECEMBER 29, 2008 As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
    In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010
    He wouldn't be the first Russian. Anyone remember Kruschev pounding his shoe on the podium? That worked out real well.

    Brainboy adds his usual blather. No surprises there.
    Politics is like driving. To go forward select "D", to go backward select "R."

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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainGonzo View Post
    I didn't know that smoking dope was now legal in the Rodina!

    Up until the breakup of the old CCCP, they were basically a military superpower with a third world economy.
    Exactly!! And no one would have cared about their military if they didn't have nukes.
    Politics is like driving. To go forward select "D", to go backward select "R."

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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainGonzo View Post
    I didn't know that smoking dope was now legal in the Rodina!

    Up until the breakup of the old CCCP, they were basically a military superpower with a third world economy.
    You would like to think that. However, as my Turkish friend tells me, Russia has made a come back. The thing the Russians have going for them is they don't worry about workers rights, the environment, or who they hurt. Not saying that is a good thing, it's just the reality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    However, as my Turkish friend tells me, Russia has made a come back.
    Have you even been to a Turkish bath? At least we know where you meet...ahem...*friends*.
    The Russians have a made a comeback to what? They never really produced anything of value aside from AK-47s.
    Politics is like driving. To go forward select "D", to go backward select "R."

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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgeWendtCFI View Post
    MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
    Typical domestic garbage.. they fall apart after the 234-year warranty runs out!
    So you call this your free country
    Tell me why it costs so much to live
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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    Exactly!! And no one would have cared about their military if they didn't have nukes.
    You might just want to give history a bit of a re read SC. Couple guys named Napoleon and Hitler made the same assumption. Seriously, Russia does not handle democracy well. The country is back in a mess now since oil dropped, Putin and puppet would love to have the world frightened of them but they need to concentrate on getting their bloody economy functioning and leave the toys in storage. They do supply somewhere between 40 and 60% of western Europes energy needs however so they do have a lot of clout on that particular stage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BryanLoader View Post
    You might just want to give history a bit of a re read SC. Couple guys named Napoleon and Hitler made the same assumption. Seriously, Russia does not handle democracy well. The country is back in a mess now since oil dropped, Putin and puppet would love to have the world frightened of them but they need to concentrate on getting their bloody economy functioning and leave the toys in storage. They do supply somewhere between 40 and 60% of western Europes energy needs however so they do have a lot of clout on that particular stage.
    NOW YOU WANT HIM TO READ HISTORY??!!!! Too funny. Realize that he will only read what is convenient and then revise it to fit his needs. Ask him which two presidents in the US oversaw the greatest deficit spending.

    Want another funny. The Russians were in Afghanistan before the U.S. My how the times have changed. Our job there is done. Time to bring our troops home. We can start with Asia, then Africa, then Europe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    NOW YOU WANT HIM TO READ HISTORY??!!!! Too funny. Realize that he will only read what is convenient and then revise it to fit his needs. Ask him which two presidents in the US oversaw the greatest deficit spending.

    Want another funny. The Russians were in Afghanistan before the U.S. My how the times have changed. Our job there is done. Time to bring our troops home. We can start with Asia, then Africa, then Europe.
    I know quite a number of Ukrainians who were in Afghanistan with the Soviets. Not a pretty time that's for sure. Before them the Brits were there 100 years ago. Read Kipling for some insights in that little adventure. The US has probably fared better but there is no way on Gods green earth that things will have changed 1 whit a year after the last NATO troop goes home.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BryanLoader View Post
    You might just want to give history a bit of a re read SC. Couple guys named Napoleon and Hitler made the same assumption. Seriously, Russia does not handle democracy well. The country is back in a mess now since oil dropped, Putin and puppet would love to have the world frightened of them but they need to concentrate on getting their bloody economy functioning and leave the toys in storage. They do supply somewhere between 40 and 60% of western Europes energy needs however so they do have a lot of clout on that particular stage.
    Bryan. All very true. Napoleon and Hitler attacked the Russians on their home turf. Huge mistakes on both parts since the supply lines needed to support the effort were almost immediately prohibitive. They both underestimated their enemy's ability to utilize the home field advantage during the harsh climate. Both Napoleon and Hitler did not anticipate the possibility of the Russian weather and the ability of the defenders to give up space for time. An easy thing for the Russians to do since I think the country covered almost nine time zones. My comments were in reference to the possibility of the Russians (even during the Cold War USSR day) of being an offensive power and invading either western Europe or even possibly trying to invade the US. It wasn't going to happen easily for them unless the conflict went nuclear. Which was my point that we had little reason to fear the conventional forces of the USSR as we do the Russian military.

    I'm not sure what you mean by they do not handle democracy well. Are they supposed to? Why? Isn't that something that should come from the people who live there? As we are finding out, the imposition of democracy via external means is not an easy task. Nor is it the cure all for any nation.

    The economy of the USSR and Russia has never even come close to the US in any way shape or form. Especially from the level of being able to supply even the basics to their populace. Their goods were never considered worthy of import by other countries short of military hardware with the exception of the AK-47. A truly legendary/iconic weapon.

    Yes they do supply much of Europes oil. So what? The comeback (to what?) has little impact on the US.

    Be careful when Brainboy agrees with you. He's like that crazy person you see on the street ranting and raving. Don't make eye contact and just keep walking.
    Last edited by scfire86; 12-30-2008 at 08:14 AM.
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    As far as not handling democracy well, they seem incapable of making decisions on a consensual basis. For centuries the country has been ruled by stronmen going back to the czars and the people themselves just cannot actually sit down and agree on any type of problem or the decision to rectify it. They need to be instructed. I say this with all love and respect as I live very close to there and I travel there a lot. Even something as simple as 3 couples going out for dinner. I made the mistake of saying, " Well you decide as I really don't know the restaurants in this area. It will be my treat." It took an hour before anybody finally agreed and my wife told me that next time she will tell me before hand where we will go and I am to decide and tell them. Everybodies happy. Its a really strange country sometimes, the people can be the warmest and most hospitable I have ever met, but they need a strong leader. Maybe a generation or two will change this but for now, they will always be in a semi dictatorial form of govt. BTW, Russia is actually 11 time zones wide. As far as supplying most of Europes energy, it automatically means they hold a fair bit of influence with Europe as well. The world is no longer made up of disparate countries but are all parts of a whole, interdependent on each other. Co-operation is a necessity and North America definitely needs Europe.

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    As far as military, I spent 2 tours in Europe and the Med from 67 to 72. Consensus of opinion there was that unless Allies went Nuclear, Red Army could be on the North Sea and Med coasts in 1 week. Depending on state of tensions, Soviets had up to 25,000 tanks deployed and up to 50,000 artillery pieces. True their equipment was not anywhere near ours but there was a helluva lot of it and we couldn't have carried enough ammo to shoot them all even if they never fired a shot. There was no way that France, Germany or the low countries would allow Nuke use on their soil. Its a damn good thing that communism eventually disintegrated, helped a lot by Regan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BryanLoader View Post
    As far as military, I spent 2 tours in Europe and the Med from 67 to 72. Consensus of opinion there was that unless Allies went Nuclear, Red Army could be on the North Sea and Med coasts in 1 week. Depending on state of tensions, Soviets had up to 25,000 tanks deployed and up to 50,000 artillery pieces. True their equipment was not anywhere near ours but there was a helluva lot of it and we couldn't have carried enough ammo to shoot them all even if they never fired a shot. There was no way that France, Germany or the low countries would allow Nuke use on their soil. Its a damn good thing that communism eventually disintegrated, helped a lot by Regan.
    I can only go with the anecdotes I had told to me. One of my neighbors was in the Army working directly with NATO. His comments to me that yes, the Soviets had HUGE numerical superiority in tanks and artillery. After the Berlin Wall fell he had the opportunity to see the hardware up close. His comments were that (especially in Armor) while the USSR outnumbered the NATO countries in tanks by about 10-1 he was certain only about 3 of those would have started. The PM program in the Warsaw Pact was atrocious. Most of the tanks he saw were hulks that wouldn't have been able to move an inch had it been required. Again anecdotal. But having traveled to eastern Europe and seeing the state of their infrastructure it wouldn't surprise me.
    Politics is like driving. To go forward select "D", to go backward select "R."

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    Quote Originally Posted by BryanLoader View Post
    BTW, Russia is actually 11 time zones wide. As far as supplying most of Europes energy, it automatically means they hold a fair bit of influence with Europe as well.
    Thank you for the correction. I knew it was quite a few more than the US.
    Politics is like driving. To go forward select "D", to go backward select "R."

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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    I can only go with the anecdotes I had told to me. One of my neighbors was in the Army working directly with NATO. His comments to me that yes, the Soviets had HUGE numerical superiority in tanks and artillery. After the Berlin Wall fell he had the opportunity to see the hardware up close. His comments were that (especially in Armor) while the USSR outnumbered the NATO countries in tanks by about 10-1 he was certain only about 3 of those would have started. The PM program in the Warsaw Pact was atrocious. Most of the tanks he saw were hulks that wouldn't have been able to move an inch had it been required. Again anecdotal. But having traveled to eastern Europe and seeing the state of their infrastructure it wouldn't surprise me.
    I have no doubt that what your neighbor told you was probably true after 1989. The time I'm talking about was late 60's, early 70's. Things quite a bit more heated then. Sovs certainly didn't have the same maintenance program NATO had but they didn't need it. Their stuff was pretty esthetically barren but it did work most of the time. Also acceptable losses were the number of troops going forward. A prime example of that was the tank riders of WW2. They welded grab handles on their tanks, armed the guys with PPSH41's and pointed them west. Trucks followed with replacements. Average life expectancy was 11 days, but those same guys stood on Hitlers grave. Russia had no qualms about losses. They had lots of supply. We have an old vet in our home town who rode from Poltava in eastern Ukraine to Berlin. I see him every Aug during their memorial day. Hes got quite some stories.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BryanLoader View Post
    Hes got quite some stories.
    When I got hired one of my nearly retired captains had fought in Korea. He told me something I remember to this day.

    "Son, the survivors always have great stories."
    Politics is like driving. To go forward select "D", to go backward select "R."

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    Quote Originally Posted by scfire86 View Post
    When I got hired one of my nearly retired captains had fought in Korea. He told me something I remember to this day.

    "Son, the survivors always have great stories."
    Yep thats a definite. Probably a lot that will never be told as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
    my Turkish friend tells me, Russia has made a come back.

    A Bath Towel told you that??............ Wow......
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    Well my Turkish Blend told me we are going to annex Canada and tax them with the cold weather we get.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dickey View Post
    Well my Turkish Blend told me we are going to annex Canada and tax them with the cold weather we get.
    Might just as well. We're taxed on every damn other thing up here. On a positive, if you would just send us a few of your politicians, we'll put em up somewhere north of 60 and all that hot air gotta work wonders on the weather.

    OOOPS breathing produces CO2 doesn't it. Ha! Another tax on those wastrels in Canada.

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    For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
    Bah...American preachers have been spouting stuff like this for years. I remember sitting in tents on sweltering summer nights, listening to some yahoo rant on about how women wearing pants was gonna do our great nation in.
    Doom! Doom!

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