1. #1
    Forum Member

    Join Date
    Dec 2002

    Unhappy Homeownwer's stay and defend or go early?

    I wonder how many were killed in there homes vs trying to escape.My guess is many were planning to stay and defend.When thing got bad.They attempted to escape at the last minute.The new stay and defend concept for the general public may have failed the test here!I know in parts of califorina there looking at this stay and defend concept as a opt for homeowners.Thats all we need is last minute homeowners bailing during the thick of the firestorm.

    Australian Fire Zone a Crime Scene
    WHITTLESEA, Australia --

    Police declared incinerated towns crime scenes Monday, and the prime minister spoke of "mass murder" after investigators said arsonists may have set some of Australia's worst wildfires in history. The death toll rose to 166.

    There were no quick answers, but officials said panic and the freight-train speed of the fire front - driven by 60 mph winds and temperatures as high as 117 degrees Fahrenheit (47 C) - probably accounted for the unusually high toll.

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, visibly upset during a television interview, reflected the country's disgust at the idea that arsonists may have set some of the 400 fires that devastated Victoria state, or helped them jump containment lines.

    "What do you say about anyone like that?" Rudd said. "There's no words to describe it, other than it's mass murder."

    From the air, the landscape was blackened as far as the eye could see. In at least one town, bodies still lay in the streets. Entire forests were reduced to leafless, charred trunks, farmland to ashes. Victoria police spokeswoman Christie Pengally said the death toll as of late Monday was 166.

    At Kinglake, a body covered by a white sheet lay in a yard where every tree, blade of grass and the ground was blackened. Elsewhere in the town, the burned-out hulks of four cars were clustered haphazardly together after an apparent collision. Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio reported a car in a small reservoir, the driver apparently steering there in desperation.

    "What we've seen, I think, is that people didn't have enough time, in some cases," Victoria Police Commissioner Christine Nixon told a news conference. "We're finding (bodies) on the side of roads, in cars that crashed."

    But there were also extraordinary tales of survival.

    One man leapt into his pool to escape the flames as they roared over his house, leaving it unscarred but razing his neighbor's. Another woman sheltered with her children in a wombat burrow as the worst of the fire passed.

    Mark Strubing took refuge in a drainage pipe as his property outside Kinglake burned.

    "We jumped in the car and we were only literally just able to outrun this fire. It was traveling as fast as the wind," Strubing told Nine Network television news.

    He said he and a companion rolled around in the water at the bottom to wet their clothing as the flames started licking the pipe: "How we didn't burn I don't know."

    Elsewhere in Kinglake, Jack Barber fled just ahead of the flames with his wife and a neighbor, driving in two cars packed with birth certificates, insurance documents, two cats, four kittens and a dog.

    "We had a fire plan," he said Monday. "The plan was to get the hell out of there before the flames came."

    With their escape route blocked by downed power lines and a tree, they took shelter first at a school, then - when that burned - in an exposed cricket ground ringed by trees, where they found five others.

    "All around us was 100-foot (30-meter) flames ringing the oval, and we ran where the wind wasn't. It was swirling all over the place," Barber said. "For three hours, we dodged the wind."

    The Victoria Country Fire Service said some 850 square miles (2,200 square kilometers) were burned out.

    More than a dozen fires still burned uncontrollably across the state, though conditions were much cooler than on Saturday, when the wind surged and changed direction quickly time and again, fanning the blazes and making their direction utterly unpredictable from minute to minute.

    Local media had been issuing warnings in the days leading up to the weekend, but many people guarding their homes with backyard hoses would have been outside when the wind changed, and thus could have missed the new warnings.

    Jim Andrews, senior meteorologist at accuweather.com, said the combination of record high heat, high winds, gusts and low humidity created a perfect storm scenario for the fires. "I cannot fathom in my mind anything more, hellish, firewise," he said.

    "Last Saturday we had the most intense fire weather conditions we have had in forecast history," David Packham, a research fellow in climatology at the School of Geography & Environmental Science at Melbourne's Monash University, said in an e-mail to journalists on Monday. He said the heat and a recent lack of rain made it clear days before the weekend that "conditions were in place for a disaster to occur."

    At least 750 homes were destroyed Saturday, the Victoria Country Fire Service said.

    Officials said both the tolls of human life and property would almost certainly rise as they reached deeper into the disaster zone, and forecasters said temperatures would rise again later in the week, posing a risk of further flare-ups.

    Police Commissioner Nixon said investigators had strong suspicions that at least one of the deadly blazes - known as the Churchill fire after a ruined town - was deliberately set. And it could not be ruled out for other fires. She cautioned against jumping to conclusions.

    The country's top law officer, Attorney General Robert McClelland, said people found to have deliberately set fires could face murder charges. Murder can carry a life sentence.

    Police sealed off Maryville, a town destroyed by another fire, with checkpoints, telling residents who fled and news crews they could not enter because there were still bodies in the streets. Armed officers moved through the shattered landscape taking notes, pool news photographs showed.

    John Handmer, a wildfire safety expert at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, said research had shown that people in the path of a blaze must get out early or stay inside until the worst has past.

    "Fleeing at the last moment is the worst possible option," he said. "Sadly, this message does not seem to have been sufficiently heeded this weekend with truly awful consequences in Victoria."

    Even if a house is set ablaze, it will burn more slowly and with less intensity than a wildfire and residents have a better chance of escape, he said.

    Victoria state Premier John Brumby on Monday announced a commission would be held to examine all aspects of the fires, including warning policies.

    "I think our policy has served us well in what I call normal conditions. These were unbelievable circumstances," Brumby said on Australian Broadcasting Corp. television.

    Blazes have been burning for weeks across several states in southern Australia. A long-running drought in the south - the worst in a century - had left forests extra dry and Saturday's fire conditions in Victoria were said to be the worst ever in Australia.

    In New South Wales state on Monday, a 31-year-old man appeared in court charged with arson in connection with a wildfire that burned north of Sydney over the weekend. No loss of life was reported there. He faces up to 10 years in prison.

    The country's deadliest fires before the current spate killed 75 people in 1983. In 2006, nine people died on South Australia's Eyre Peninsula.

    Always a day late and a dollar short!

    Hillbilly Irish!

  2. #2
    Forum Member

    Join Date
    May 2001
    Mornington Peninsula.Victoria.Australia

    Default Stay or go

    Problem is we watch to many American movies downunder.

    These arguments all came up after the 1983 fires and the CFA has detailed case study of all those that died in that fire and what action they took.

    The only appropriate time to leave is early in the day and most people assume it is not going to happen to them so they stay. The areas impacted are hilly with roads winding through them. Mass evacuation is not feasible given the short time frame. Remaining in the home is much safer than on the road. Some homes however cannot be defended. They are on the top of ridge lines and provide residents with a beautiful view. Apart from forcibly evacuating residents every time there is a hot day then what do you propose. The other problem is that if you do evacuate residents then you need to put them in a safe place. In Marysville that was the town centre. After 1983 all towns sign posted defined evacuation points. This signage was removed due to risk of litigation by almost all local councils in the last 10 years.

    Reality is that most peoples fire plans a feel good documents that are not that useful when it comes to the real thing. Some community or government risk mitigation documents are not much better.

    Defence of the house depends on good house keeping. Goverment legislation to say provide a fire proof bunker with each house is no good if those bunkers are full of stored junk when they are required.

    Whether it be downunder or elsewhere the rules are the same. Remove all ignition points within a yard of the building. Remove as much fuel as possible within 30 yds to provide a safe working area.

    Another problem that occurred was that strike teams deployed and hit the first bit of red stuff they encountered rather than going to where they had been directed hence no one got to where the fire was doing the most damage. Same thing happened in 1983 with the following change to ops. Local brigades were to remain to mop up while strike teams were to ignore the burnt areas and concentrate on either stopping the fire or asset protection in areas being impacted.

    The area I live in was very hot but remained fire free for the day. I was not directly involved so I remained home with a 400 ltr tank on the back of my tractor ready to protect my home if required. This was in line with public warnings gived the previous day predicting a day of extreme and unprecented fire risk by the CFA. I did not expect the warning of an approaching fire or support from the local brigade should a fire occur. I visited the local brigade at 4pm and mentioned the smoke North of Melbourne. It was assumed by brigade members that the smoke was coming from the Hamilton fire in the West of the state. The local brigade was deployed to the Churchill fire shortly after.

    I have a couple of paramedic friends (Colin Addison & Judy Barnes) who I ski with in the winter and lived in Marysville,I wonder what their situation is. I need to make some inquiries.
    Last edited by wombat; 02-10-2009 at 06:27 AM. Reason: more
    These views are my own and not of either my brigade or any other organisation.

  3. #3
    Forum Member

    Join Date
    May 2001
    Mornington Peninsula.Victoria.Australia

    Default CFA backs 'defend or go' policy

    From the Melbourne Age

    Fire authorities have defended their "stay and defend, or go" policy despite angry survivors saying they had little or no warning before the disastrous Victorian bushfires struck.

    Since the 1983 Ash Wednesday bushfires, authorities have told residents to decide on days of high fire danger to go early, or to stay and defend their homes if they are well prepared.

    Many of the 147 people killed in the Kinglake region alone died as they tried to escape the approaching fire front.

    Stories emerged of people perishing as they fled, while their houses survived, and others who died while defending their homes.

    Some survivors complained that fire authorities did not tell them to flee.

    Among them was Tammy Reece from Kinglake West, who said she was not home but her partner and six children at the house had no clue of the danger as the fire raced towards the town.

    "My partner never got any warning at all," Ms Reece said.

    "No one came past and said get out.

    "They should have got around and should have done more, that is the whole thing."

    Although her family escaped the blaze, Ms Reece still did not know on Tuesday if her house was standing.

    Silvo Hercog, also from Kinglake West, listened to the radio news for information and was angry he heard little about the fire.

    He was driving to Yarra Glen when he called his wife at their home.

    "She didn't know anything until I rang her at half-past five and by that time the fire was already up the mountain," Mr Hercog said.

    "There was no evacuation, there was no one to say stay or go now.

    "There wasn't enough warning."

    But Country Fire Authority (CFA) Chief Fire Officer Russell Rees said fires could arrive without warning.

    Mr Rees said the stay and defend policy was based on sound evidence, but could be reviewed.

    "It is the application of that policy and a lack of an alternative that we need to work on," Mr Rees told reporters
    These views are my own and not of either my brigade or any other organisation.

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