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  1. #1
    Forum Member TFMBob's Avatar
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    Exclamation Before buying - you should consider this:

    Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930s: November 12, 2007

    A Wall Street superstar this year who runs Balestra Capital Partners, Jim Melcher, says he's "worried about a recession. Not a normal one, but a very bad one. The worst since the 1930s. I expect we'll see clear signs of it in six months with a dramatic slowdown in the gross domestic product."
    story here - > http://www.nysun.com/article/66268

    FYI; a few of the major mfgrs. ARE already considering this...gearing-up for what could be a nightmare. The return of the basic, generic, commerical...getter done units, minus all the bells and whistles [that don't mean anything anyway]...may be the sign of the times.
    Last edited by TFMBob; 11-18-2007 at 09:33 PM.
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  2. #2
    Let's talk fire trucks! BoxAlarm187's Avatar
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    Perhaps, but I know I've got over $400K waiting to spend on a new custom-cab CAFS rescue-pumper ... even gonna have a bell and two whistles on it. (And I'll clarify that, our county is purchasing the rig, the volunteers are paying for the bells and whistles).

  3. #3
    Forum Member TFMBob's Avatar
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    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by BoxAlarm187 View Post
    Perhaps, but I know I've got over $400K waiting to spend on a new custom-cab CAFS rescue-pumper ... even gonna have a bell and two whistles on it. (And I'll clarify that, our county is purchasing the rig, the volunteers are paying for the bells and whistles).
    Happy for you...but my quote was directed to others...who may NOT have their funding secured. The County may have the $400K for THIS one...but in the [near] future...may not. Hope you enjoy your new rig, and be sure and post a photo when you receive it.

    However, I think for $400K, the County could have secured a Class-A, 1250 gpm/750, commerical, 4-door-cab, CAFS with a few whistles...and bought a couple of new ambulances too.
    Last edited by TFMBob; 11-18-2007 at 09:45 PM.
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    dazed and confused Resq14's Avatar
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    BOB-

    I just browsed through a dozen or so of your prior posts to try and figure this out, with no luck.

    Why do you randomly put quotation marks around words? For the life of me, I can't figure it out. It implies things that I don't think you mean to imply.
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    Forum Member TFMBob's Avatar
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    Red face

    Quote Originally Posted by Resq14 View Post
    BOB-

    I just browsed through a dozen or so of your prior posts to try and figure this out, with no luck.

    Why do you randomly put quotation marks around words? For the life of me, I can't figure it out. It implies things that I don't think you mean to imply.
    I will be grateful if you could somehow forgive me, and it is obvious I DID NOT do well in english grammer...over 50 years ago. Very

    I have seen MANY other post in here...made by folks MUCH younger than me, who can't spell or use ANY grammer whatsoever.

    I take your criticism seriously, and WILL NOT include [" "] anymore. I trust you will correct ALL the other grammer and misspelled words by everyone else in the future.

    Thanks so much for making me aware of one of many of my shortcommings. I guess I am getting too old to fit-in here.
    Last edited by TFMBob; 11-18-2007 at 09:52 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TFMBob View Post
    Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930s: November 12, 2007

    Pump and dump/sky is falling nonsense

    story here - > http://www.nysun.com/article/66268

    FYI; a few of the major mfgrs. ARE already considering this...gearing-up for what could be a nightmare. The return of the basic, generic, commerical...getter done units, minus all the bells and whistles [that don't mean anything anyway]...may be the sign of the times.

    What's that have to do with Apparatus?

    I'd suggest the Wall St Journal for economic new/opinion vs the National Enquirer/NY Sun.

    Not to worried here in Iowa. Less than 3% unemployment and in NE Iowa mfg are begging for employees (welders/machinists in particular).

  7. #7
    dazed and confused Resq14's Avatar
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    Default Whoa...

    Tried to PM you to ask you, but it wasn't an option on your account.

    Don't think I was/am being critical of your writing skills!!! I was just curious why certain words had quotes around them. I didn't know if I was missing something (which could very well be the case!)

    I'm not a master of our language, and I have no business correcting anyone's writing -- I've got enough shortcomings of my own to worry about. It was just a simple, honest question.
    Last edited by Resq14; 11-19-2007 at 01:52 AM.
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    MembersZone Subscriber npfd801's Avatar
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    Our tax base remains pretty constant, and we save long term and pay cash for our rigs, so this really doesn't have much of an effect on my department...

    We lost an area recently to an annexation by a city, but realistically, we'll end up losing about $10-15,000 a year, which I would estimate is less than 5% of our budget.

    For as much as I complain that a fire protection district has its disadvantages here in Illinois, our income is property tax based, and assessed property values rarely decline...
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    Forum Member Rescue101's Avatar
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    Bob,I've always enjoyed your musings but I do have a question.You seem to favor commercial chassis.Why? The $ split between a commercial and custom chassis is shrinking by the day.With all the electronics and service points you have to consider today why wouldn't you consider a tilt cab custom? We recently looked at a commercial chassis for our next project because we knew the Selectboard would ask.The difference between a custom and the commercial was less than 20k.I don't know where you're going to buy an ambulance for that,maybe a chase/fly car.PERSONALLY,given the choice of working on our Spartan or one of our Internationals,give me the Spartan anyday.And our next will be a Spartan,unless something really weird happens. T.C.

  10. #10
    Forum Member zfdtruckman's Avatar
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    Don't listen to the doom and gloom. When was the last time any recession really affected your operations? Like npfd801 stated, the vast majority of our revenue is from property taxes which never go down even in a recession. Here in the northern IL southern WI area, I can't think of many people that were affected by the last recession. This whole area is pretty well built up with a good mix of commercial and industrial tax base with the majority of industry that works even during a recession. The only advantage I see in a bad economy is that some manufacturers will actually cut prices to keep up their volume. Actually a good time to buy that apparatus with all the bells and whistles.

  11. #11
    Forum Member DennisTheMenace's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zfdtruckman View Post
    Don't listen to the doom and gloom. When was the last time any recession really affected your operations? Like npfd801 stated, the vast majority of our revenue is from property taxes which never go down even in a recession. Here in the northern IL southern WI area, I can't think of many people that were affected by the last recession. This whole area is pretty well built up with a good mix of commercial and industrial tax base with the majority of industry that works even during a recession. The only advantage I see in a bad economy is that some manufacturers will actually cut prices to keep up their volume. Actually a good time to buy that apparatus with all the bells and whistles.
    If you think that property tax revenue can't go down, you are mistaken. In a bad enough recession folks will walk right away from property that they are going to lose to much money in and don't expect the bank to cover the lose until they sell the place in a foreclosure auction, which will drive home prices down which will lower the assessed values which mean....... tax revenues drop. Manufactures can't cut prices when they are operating already with pretty tight profit margins. Not trying to preach any sort of gloom and doom, far from it I think that the economy is set to take off again very soon after a very minor correctio or two. However don't think that your local economy is somehow recession proof, people were saying the same about their local real estate markets 18 months ago.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyckftbl View Post
    LOL....dont you people have anything else to do besides b*tch about our b*tching?

  12. #12
    Let's talk fire trucks! BoxAlarm187's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TFMBob View Post
    However, I think for $400K, the County could have secured a Class-A, 1250 gpm/750, commerical, 4-door-cab, CAFS with a few whistles...and bought a couple of new ambulances too.
    Although I don't mean to get away from the intent of the original posting of the thread, I thought that I might just address some of the pounts that you made in your reply....

    1. We have SOP's in the county that dictate the purchase of each type of fire apparatus. The SOP's state that we purchase custom cab rigs. Therefore, commericals weren't even an option (not that they would have been anyway, 7 years ago we purchased the last commercial 4-door you'll ever see in this county).
    2. The SOP's also state that we must have a 1500GPM pump, 750 gallons of water, 25 gallons of foam, and a on-board foam system. The VFD members are paying to upgrade it to CAFS.
    3. EMS transport is supplied by a separate agency here, so no need for the ambulances.

    Along with the previous poster, I'm curious what you predisposition towards the commerical cabs is?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DennisTheMenace View Post
    In a bad enough recession folks will walk right away from property that they are going to lose to much money in and don't expect the bank to cover the lose until they sell the place in a foreclosure auction,
    The bank would have to pay the taxes that are due. Otherwise, they will lose the property to the town/ county whomever the taxes got to.

    As far as the original post goes, according to my history books, we were in the great depression in the 30's not a recession. I'm wondering if the article got it wrong and meant the worst recession in 30 years (late 70's ala Mr. Peanut one of our worst Presidents ever) If you look at the actual economic numbers, the economy has steadily grown and outpaced most estimates over the past 5 years. Is a recession possible? Yes. Is it likely? probably not. Keep the democrats from raising our taxes and we should be ok.

    As far as affecting us buying a new piece of apparatus, it should have very little effect if their is a serious recession. I agree with the previous comment that it would most likely lower apparatus prices.

  14. #14
    dazed and confused Resq14's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoxAlarm187 View Post
    Along with the previous poster, I'm curious what you predisposition towards the commerical cabs is?
    Not to mention, they fall apart in real-world crashes...
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  15. #15
    Forum Member DeputyChiefGonzo's Avatar
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    if you look at the commerical chassis used for the fire service, ask yourself this.

    In the real world, how long do many trucking companies keep a Navistar or Freightliner medium duty truck chassis?

    From what I've seen, an average of ten years. They are considered to be "disposable".

    In the fire service, we have to get 20+ years out of a rig. At year ten, we are already behind the proverbial 8 ball with a commercial chassis.

    My own FD's experience bears this out. There were a couple of Chiefs who loved commercial chassis (Ford C8000 and Navistar).

    The cost of doing bodywork when they started to rust out negated the savings of buying a commerical chassis built for the fire service.
    Last edited by CaptainGonzo; 11-20-2007 at 02:07 PM.
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  16. #16
    Forum Member TFMBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rescue101 View Post
    I don't know where you're going to buy an ambulance for that, maybe a chase/fly car. T.C.
    However, I think for $400K, the County could have secured a Class-A, 1250 gpm/750, commerical, 4-door-cab, CAFS with a few whistles...and bought a couple of new ambulances too.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Just an example of what $336K bought:
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1. 2006, E-One/Freightliner -1250/750 [fully equipped] = $258K

    2. 2006, Wheeled Coach/Ford E-450, Type III (not a chase/fly car)= $78K

    additional squad (NOT purchased) for... = $78K

    ONE Class A pump and TWO squads TOTAL = $414K (close to $400K)
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  17. #17
    Forum Member Rescue101's Avatar
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    I'm talking about a 20K difference,not a 64K difference.That is the cost difference between a Custom and a Commercial for our project.And I don't know where you're going to buy a new(or DECENT used)ambulance for that money. Still unanswered is why you seem to favor commercial over Custom? And let's compare similar rigs.We don't do medical(outside of first responder)so the squads/ambo's are of little interest to me. T.C.

  18. #18
    Forum Member TFMBob's Avatar
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    =Rescue101;887628]I don't know where you're going to buy a new(or DECENT used)ambulance for that money.

    Still unanswered is why you seem to favor commercial over Custom?
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ECONOMICS and SERVICE in a [possible] upcoming VERY tight economy...and still get the job done!

    What is the difference between a; high priced, upper class rig, and a low budget unit...COMMERICAL rig?

    1. Both have a pump, tank, hose-bed, compartments, 4-door cab design, engine, tires and wheels...to transport equipment and firefighters...the object of the excerise.

    2. The low-budget rig [commerical chassis] has been tried 'n true by many miles and hours of commerical use, with parts relative accessable LOCALLY from commerical dealers.

    3. The high priced, upper-class rig is the same...from the back of the 4-door cab to the tailboard, as the low-budget rig.

    4. Why pay more for something that parts are not readily available, and serves the same purpose?

    example only:

    Nashville, TN. bought 15 Contenders @ $298.320 each: IHC Contender® Pumpers; (International 4700 chassis), 330 HP engine, Akron A&B foam system, Hale 1500 GPM pump, 750-gallon tank. Job # 17846 1-10 Part of a 15 truck order.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    example [only] of a NEW ambulance/rescue..for LESS than $78K:

    07-31 New F-550 4X4, Diesel Auto Rescue
    Aluminum Extruded body with sweep out compartments. Air Condition, All Led lighting, tel floods, 330 Cu Ft of space. $74,900

    http://www.1strespondernews.com/webp...&MID=&DID=null
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Obviously, you have your valid reasons for custom apparatus, and I favor commerical, for the above reasons. We can argue this till the cows come home...which will solve nothing.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree...I hope without hard feelings.
    Last edited by TFMBob; 11-20-2007 at 12:03 PM.
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    Default funny

    Nothing against anyones posts on the forum I just had to chuckle about Reading this topic about what we spend on apparatus and pinching pennies on a chassis and the next topic over they are talking about how to mount the "chrome bell" I say ditch the bell and spend the money on a custom cab JMO

  20. #20
    Let's talk fire trucks! BoxAlarm187's Avatar
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    TFMBob hath writ:

    What is the difference between a; high priced, upper class rig, and a low budget unit...COMMERICAL rig?

    1. Both have a pump, tank, hose-bed, compartments, 4-door cab design, engine, tires and wheels...to transport equipment and firefighters...the object of the excerise.
    Leave the pump, tank, hose bed, and compartments out of the equation. We're strictly talking about the cab & chassis. Sure, the commerical cab will do these things, but with what reliability, and for how long under the conditions that the fire service demands?

    2. The low-budget rig [commerical chassis] has been tried 'n true by many miles and hours of commerical use, with parts relative accessable LOCALLY from commerical dealers.
    Again, look at the other posters here. The demands that the commerical industry and the fire service put on vehicles are two different things. Fleet managers see a 300K mile commerical chassis as a throw-away vehicle....not something the fire service does.

    3. The high priced, upper-class rig is the same...from the back of the 4-door cab to the tailboard, as the low-budget rig.
    Except for the frame dimensions, multi-plexing (or hard wiring), crossmembers, axle selections....

    4. Why pay more for something that parts are not readily available, and serves the same purpose?
    I don't know, maybe we've just had good luck, but I don't remember ever having a rig out of service for more than 48 hours (custom or commerical) waiting on cab-related parts.

    example only:

    Nashville, TN. bought 15 Contenders @ $298.320 each: IHC Contender® Pumpers; (International 4700 chassis), 330 HP engine, Akron A&B foam system, Hale 1500 GPM pump, 750-gallon tank.

    Let's look at those Nashville rigs in 10 years and see how well they're holding up, and how those 330HP motors have stood up to 10 years of abuse in a large department like that.

    I also wonder how the FF's enjoy the egress from that commerical cab while wearing full PPE and SCBA?

    Finally, on the ambulance selection, we're paying $180,000 for International 4400/PL Custom ambulances at work. Lot of money? Sure is. However, we gotta spend it, when our average ambulance is making shy of 3000 runs a year. The 3-year old FL/Medic Master at my station has 125,000 miles on it already. I don't think I wanna do that in a $78,000 Class 3 E350.

    As you said, we may have to agree to disagree....
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