CAL FIRE Bracing for Challenging Summer as Wildfires Burn
The Mercury News
(TNS)
California is entering summer with fire danger already running higher than usual, fueled by dry grass, early snowmelt, persistent wind and a hot March that left parts of Northern California especially vulnerable, state fire officials said Tuesday.
“We know we will have an increased level of activity this year,” Cal Fire Chief Joe Tyler said during a monthly speaker’s series hosted by the California Natural Resources Agency. “Working closely with all of our partners, we will be prepared.”
Big storms soaked the state in late December, early January and mid-February. But they were followed by a record dry and hot March, which dried out vegetation in many places. As warmer months approach, the risk is growing quickly, he said.
“Fire activity has been picking up,” Tyler said. “The grass is cured in the Central Valley and Southern California. That fine fuel is ready for ignition by sparks and embers.”
Even though three fires burning Tuesday were in Southern California, conditions are of particular concern this year in Northern California, Cal Fire officials said, due to the hot March weather, the early melting of the Sierra snowpack, persistent wind and low humidity. Northern California also received less precipitation than Southern California this winter.
Since Oct. 1, San Francisco’s rainfall has been 90% of the historical average, while Los Angeles has seen 136% of its historical average.
“Fire danger is well above what is typical this time of year,” said Jesse Torres, Cal Fire’s deputy chief of communications, describing the Northern half of the state.
Statewide, 32,054 acres have burned since Jan. 1 on lands overseen by Cal Fire and the U.S. Forest Service. That’s roughly 50% higher than the average over the past five years over the same time frame, when 23,315 acres burned.
On Tuesday, more than 17,000 people remained under evacuation orders as the Sandy Fire burned in the hills above Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks, near the Ventura County-Los Angeles County border. Roughly 750 firefighters battled the 1,386-acre blaze, which was 5% contained.
Cooler overnight conditions slowed the spread, fire commanders with the Ventura County Fire Department said, allowing some evacuees to return, although one house had burned.
To the west, a fire that began last Thursday when a man who crashed a sailboat onto the rocks at Santa Rosa Island and lit a flare to attract help had burned 16,600 acres by Tuesday afternoon. That fire, spreading through brush in an uninhabited portion of Channel Islands National Park, was 0% contained Tuesday. A helicopter crew evacuated 11 National Park employees, and two cabins were destroyed.
And in Kern County, the River Fire burned in the remote hills along Highway 178 east of Bakersfield. It was 3,535 acres Tuesday and 15% contained with no structures lost.
Craig Clements, director of the San Jose State University Fire Weather Laboratory, said Tuesday that moisture levels in plants around the Bay Area peaked in mid-March, about two weeks earlier than normal this year. He said the state could have a bad fire year, but a lot depends on the weather.
“I don’t think people should be super concerned about these fires in the middle of May,” Clements said. “It’s pretty typical. It doesn’t guarantee a bad summer.”
A lot will depend on the weather conditions in the months ahead, he added.
“If we have a cool summer like last year, fire risk might be a little lower,” he said. “If we have a hotter summer, it could be more catastrophic.”
Of particular concern, Clements said, is dry lightning, which can increase during El Niño years like the one shaping up because tropical storms can be drawn into Southern California, shedding moisture but keeping lightning as they head north.
“Every year it can be a big fire season,” he said. “We have the potential. But we have to have ignitions. And it often depends on the weather.”
Sixteen months ago, historic fires raged through the Palisades and Altadena communities of Los Angeles when extremely dry winter conditions in Southern California combined with 100 mph Santa Ana winds, destroying more than 16,000 homes and killing 30 people in a January 2025 disaster that shocked the nation.
That catastrophe has largely been the exception in recent years, however.
After two brutal years in 2020 and 2021, when more than 6 million acres burned, including all of Big Basin Redwoods State Park, large parts of California have enjoyed modest and even mild fire conditions in recent years, much of it due to three wet winters in a row.
Historically, more acres have burned in California after dry winters than wet ones, because moisture levels in shrubs and trees remain higher longer into the summer.
Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay, said so far this year, statewide precipitation is 95% of average.
Windy, hot conditions over the past week made some experts nervous.
On Sunday, PG&E shut off power to 4,700 homes and businesses in 15 counties as a precautionary measure due to winds gusting up to 60 mph and summer-like heat. Those included some neighborhoods in Brentwood and Dublin, along with parts of Napa, Sonoma and Solano counties. Power was restored by Monday and no shut-offs are planned for at least the next week, PG&E said.
There’s no question, California is seeing hotter summer weather on average.
The 10 hottest years on record globally since 1850 all have occurred since 2015, according to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. On average, temperatures have warmed about 2.4 degrees globally compared to 1850-1900.
When the Sierra snowpack melts early, as it did this year, not only do plants and soils dry out faster, but reservoirs, once drawn down, aren’t steadily replenished by snow melting through the late spring and summer.
Wade Crowfoot, California’s secretary for Natural Resources, said Tuesday that the state has increased the number of fuel breaks, prescribed fires, and thinning projects in recent years, streamlining permits to protect communities. He urged people to create “defensible space” around their homes by cutting back trees and brush.
“It will never be a mission-accomplished activity,” Crowfoot said. “There is always more work to do, particularly now with climate change.”
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