March 14--The 2014 fire season is shaping up to be even less predictable than in past years, due to a continued drought, a moderate amount of early-March precipitation and extreme "variability" in large-scale weather patterns forecasted through the end of the summer, according to a preliminary outlook of wildfire conditions released Thursday by the Southwest Coordination Center.
The biggest takeaway from the outlook is that there is no takeaway, especially due to a couple of big variables -- the seasonal weather forecasts and the abundance of "fine fuels" -- that have been a bit easier to read in past years, said Chuck Maxwell, a fire weather expert for the center.
One consolation, Maxwell said, is that this year's forecast points in a variety of directions, unlike recent years in which all signs pointed to another dry, devastating fire season.
"It might be a bit more reassuring to know that it's not looking like it's going to be 60 mph winds and dry for the next three-to-four months," he said.
Maxwell in past forecasts has overlaid five variables on a map of the Southwest in an effort to pinpoint where the highest risk of wildfire might be. In 2013, all but three of the 19 significant wildfires that burned between May and July in the Southwest fell within the high-risk zone, which covered most of New Mexico and Arizona and parts of Texas.
But this year, Maxwell said, he doesn't have nearly enough confidence to make such a map, which he said could oversimplify the risk of wildfire and give people a false sense of security about where one could ignite.
The July and September downpours that hit Albuquerque and elsewhere in the state caused a huge number of small shrubs, grasses, twigs and leaves -- called "fine fuels" -- to propagate between forests and plains. That wasn't the case in recent years, where continued drought and dry conditions prevented the grasses from growing.
The abundance of these fuels could mean one of two things, Maxwell said. Either the grasses will dry out and propel fires where they might otherwise go out, or just enough rain will fall to allow a "green-up," meaning the fuels will absorb enough heat to stop fires dead in their tracks. It is difficult to predict now whether these small or moderate rains will result in more or fewer acres burned, he said.
Another wrench in the works is the inconclusive weather-pattern prediction through early summer, he said.
The prediction is highly variable, Maxwell said, and calls for alternating periods of humid, cool temperatures and hot, dry ones.
That could mean the conditions will change so much as to prevent a massive wildfire from igniting and continuing to burn for a long period of time.
But, Maxwell pointed out, it doesn't take much time for the conditions to align, a spark to ignite a tree and another huge blaze to char tens of thousands of acres of New Mexico forests.
Copyright 2014 - Albuquerque Journal, N.M.
